Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 3 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Real Zaragoza beat Mallorca with a 17.4% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on October 4 (before the first match) against those on October 7 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 51.9% | 66.1% | +14.2 |
| Tenerife | Relegation | 72.4% | 58.9% | −13.5 |
| Valencia | Champions League | 37.2% | 46.5% | +9.3 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 17.4% | 25.9% | +8.5 |
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 37.8% | 29.5% | −8.3 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Champions League | 57.6% | 65.8% | +8.2 |
| Real Zaragoza | Relegation | 23.5% | 15.5% | −8.0 |
| Real Betis | Champions League | 15.5% | 22.4% | +6.9 |
| Villarreal | Champions League | 41.8% | 35.2% | −6.6 |
| Deportivo Alavés | Champions League | 29.0% | 22.5% | −6.5 |
