Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 3 draws and 4 away wins. 6 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Athletic Club beat Deportivo La Coruña with a 14.7% chance, Real Betis beat Real Madrid with a 23.9% chance, Sevilla beat Espanyol with a 13.1% chance, Real Valladolid beat Málaga with a 12.5% chance, Real Zaragoza beat Rayo Vallecano with a 20.3% chance, and Tenerife beat Villarreal with a 13.4% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 9 (before the first match) against those on September 16 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tenerife | Relegation | 74.7% | 60.2% | −14.5 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 15.9% | 29.3% | +13.4 |
| Valencia | Champions League | 35.5% | 46.9% | +11.4 |
| Villarreal | Champions League | 42.4% | 31.8% | −10.6 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Champions League | 66.2% | 56.7% | −9.5 |
| Athletic Club | Champions League | 10.5% | 19.6% | +9.1 |
| Real Betis | Relegation | 28.7% | 20.1% | −8.6 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 33.1% | 25.6% | −7.5 |
| Sevilla | Relegation | 37.9% | 31.6% | −6.3 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Champion | 24.7% | 18.7% | −6.0 |
