Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Osasuna beat Barcelona with a 16.6% chance and Mallorca beat Deportivo Alavés with a 24.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on January 23 (before the first match) against those on January 27 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | Champions League | 40.4% | 56.5% | +16.1 |
| Deportivo Alavés | Champions League | 46.4% | 32.0% | −14.4 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 43.2% | 30.4% | −12.8 |
| Osasuna | Relegation | 24.7% | 13.3% | −11.3 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 58.4% | 69.3% | +10.9 |
| Real Zaragoza | Relegation | 41.3% | 30.5% | −10.9 |
| Celta Vigo | Champions League | 47.7% | 57.9% | +10.2 |
| Tenerife | Relegation | 55.2% | 63.8% | +8.6 |
| Real Sociedad | Relegation | 60.1% | 68.3% | +8.3 |
| Mallorca | Relegation | 12.4% | 5.5% | −6.9 |
