Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 2 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Numancia beat Málaga with a 16.1% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 24 (before the first match) against those on October 18 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Numancia | Relegation | 39.8% | 23.4% | −16.3 |
| Celta Vigo | Champions League | 51.9% | 36.0% | −15.9 |
| Real Oviedo | Relegation | 36.8% | 26.4% | −10.5 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 48.9% | 59.2% | +10.3 |
| Málaga | Relegation | 7.7% | 18.0% | +10.3 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Champions League | 22.4% | 31.6% | +9.1 |
| Real Zaragoza | Champions League | 20.1% | 11.8% | −8.3 |
| Osasuna | Relegation | 37.6% | 45.7% | +8.2 |
| Celta Vigo | Champion | 15.4% | 7.9% | −7.6 |
| Málaga | Champions League | 10.5% | 3.3% | −7.2 |
