Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 4 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Rayo Vallecano beat Celta Vigo with a 13.3% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 12 (before the first match) against those on September 19 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | Champions League | 37.1% | 27.5% | −9.7 |
| Málaga | Relegation | 15.5% | 24.4% | +8.9 |
| Real Sociedad | Champions League | 15.7% | 24.3% | +8.5 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 80.9% | 72.6% | −8.3 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Champions League | 8.0% | 16.2% | +8.2 |
| Real Oviedo | Relegation | 26.0% | 33.7% | +7.8 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 37.2% | 29.4% | −7.7 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 16.8% | 9.7% | −7.2 |
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 17.3% | 11.0% | −6.3 |
| Mallorca | Champions League | 31.0% | 24.8% | −6.2 |
