Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 2 draws and 5 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Málaga beat Racing Santander with a 22.8% chance and Numancia beat Real Betis with a 24.0% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on January 5 (before the first match) against those on February 15 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 24.2% | 58.1% | +33.9 |
| Real Sociedad | Relegation | 28.1% | 47.9% | +19.8 |
| Deportivo Alavés | Champions League | 10.8% | 24.9% | +14.1 |
| Espanyol | Relegation | 8.5% | 21.0% | +12.5 |
| Numancia | Relegation | 16.5% | 4.2% | −12.4 |
| Mallorca | Champions League | 24.3% | 12.1% | −12.1 |
| Sevilla | Relegation | 75.1% | 87.2% | +12.1 |
| Atlético Madrid | Relegation | 31.0% | 19.5% | −11.5 |
| Málaga | Relegation | 27.8% | 17.2% | −10.5 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 2.3% | 11.2% | +8.9 |
