Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 2 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Real Zaragoza beat Real Madrid with a 24.1% chance and Atlético Madrid beat Málaga with a 24.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on November 28 (before the first match) against those on December 5 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Zaragoza | Champions League | 37.6% | 54.0% | +16.3 |
| Celta Vigo | Champion | 27.6% | 16.7% | −10.9 |
| Numancia | Relegation | 26.8% | 16.5% | −10.3 |
| Celta Vigo | Champions League | 73.7% | 63.6% | −10.1 |
| Atlético Madrid | Relegation | 31.0% | 21.1% | −9.9 |
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 43.0% | 33.5% | −9.5 |
| Málaga | Relegation | 20.0% | 29.1% | +9.0 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 19.4% | 10.6% | −8.8 |
| Sevilla | Relegation | 67.6% | 76.1% | +8.5 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Champion | 38.1% | 45.4% | +7.3 |
