Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 1 draw and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Atlético Madrid beat Barcelona with a 22.3% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on November 22 (before the first match) against those on January 6 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | Relegation | 37.9% | 12.4% | −25.6 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 64.2% | 40.2% | −23.9 |
| Athletic Club | Champions League | 13.5% | 35.2% | +21.7 |
| Deportivo Alavés | Relegation | 23.3% | 42.6% | +19.3 |
| Salamanca | Relegation | 13.0% | 31.1% | +18.1 |
| Valencia | Champions League | 29.6% | 45.7% | +16.2 |
| Extremadura | Relegation | 63.8% | 47.9% | −15.9 |
| Tenerife | Relegation | 26.9% | 41.7% | +14.9 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 21.7% | 9.4% | −12.2 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 43.7% | 54.9% | +11.2 |
