Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 4 home wins, 2 draws and 5 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Valencia beat Atlético Madrid with a 21.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on March 10 (before the first match) against those on March 17 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid | Europa League | 33.4% | 17.7% | −15.7 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Europa League | 54.2% | 67.8% | +13.6 |
| Real Zaragoza | Relegation | 22.7% | 10.5% | −12.2 |
| Sevilla | Relegation | 90.5% | 82.0% | −8.5 |
| Espanyol | Relegation | 27.6% | 35.0% | +7.4 |
| Barcelona | Europa League | 45.6% | 51.9% | +6.3 |
| Real Sociedad | Europa League | 8.3% | 3.1% | −5.2 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 20.5% | 25.6% | +5.0 |
| Logroñés | Relegation | 58.6% | 63.5% | +4.9 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 5.8% | 1.1% | −4.7 |
