Trend — Relegation play-off

Relegation play-off probability over time

Schalke 04 leads the race for Relegation play-off, at 12.7%. 14 teams still in contention have a 1% chance or more. Biggest riser over the last 5 updates: Schalke 04 (+7.9 pp). Biggest faller: Hamburger SV (−6.9 pp).

Recent movement

Team	Now	5 updates ago	Change (pp)	Peak
Schalke 04	12.7%	4.8%	+7.9	12.7%
SC Paderborn	12.1%	6.2%	+5.9	13.5%
Union Berlin	11.4%	13.8%	−2.4	14.2%
VfB Stuttgart	9.5%	11.8%	−2.3	11.8%
1. FC Köln	9.4%	9.7%	−0.3	10.2%
Borussia Mönchengladbach	9.1%	13.3%	−4.1	14.3%
Hoffenheim	8.1%	10.3%	−2.2	13.8%
FC Augsburg	7.4%	2.8%	+4.6	7.4%
Eintracht Frankfurt	4.7%	5.1%	−0.4	10.2%
RB Leipzig	4.0%	3.9%	+0.1	5.5%
Werder Bremen	3.5%	2.0%	+1.5	9.2%
SV Elversberg	2.2%	3.0%	−0.8	7.0%
Hamburger SV	2.0%	8.9%	−6.9	13.9%
Mainz 05	2.0%	1.8%	+0.2	6.4%
SC Freiburg	0.9%	0.4%	+0.5	5.6%
Borussia Dortmund	0.5%	0.3%	+0.2	5.5%
Bayern München	0.3%	0.3%	0.0	2.6%
Bayer Leverkusen	0.3%	1.7%	−1.5	9.3%

Relegation play-off: the first team out should finish with about 39 points (36 to 41 in 80% of simulations). That spot is held today by Schalke 04, 15th, with 5.