Borussia Dortmund
HeidenheimChampion
to be champion
89pts on average
89 in the edition
2026/27 · projection~63 (59–69)
Bundesliga · Germany
Bundesliga
Prob11 follows 2 editions of Bundesliga: 2025/26 and 2026/27. Here are the champions, who finished in each zone, how many points each spot took and the turnarounds the probabilities did not see coming.
- Editions
- 2
- Different champions
- 1
- Champion's points (avg.)
- 89
In progress · 2026/27Matchday 6 of 34
Title favourite
Bayern München 24.3%Bayer Leverkusen 22.7%Borussia Dortmund 16.4%
View 2026/27 standings Who finished where
Every zone of each edition, as the table finished — a pre-qualified team shows where it actually ended up.
Champion 2025/26
Bayern München
89 points
How the title was decided
- February 21, 2026The title chance goes above 90% and never drops again.
- April 19, 2026Title mathematically secured, with 4 matches still to play.
Champions League4 teams
Europa League1 team
Conference League1 team
Relegation play-off1 team
Relegation2 teams
How many points each spot took
Points of the last team to get into each zone — for relegation, the first team to stay out. Teams pre-qualified (through a cup, for instance) don't count. For the edition in progress, the number is the simulations' projection.
Champions League
to get in
62pts on average
62 in the edition
2026/27 · projection~55 (52–57)
Europa League
to get in
61pts on average
61 in the edition
2026/27 · projection~53 (51–56)
Conference League
to get in
59pts on average
59 in the edition
2026/27 · projection~51 (49–54)
Relegation play-off
to stay up
32pts on average
32 in the edition
2026/27 · projection~39 (36–41)
Relegation
to stay up
29pts on average
29 in the edition
2026/27 · projection~37 (34–40)
| Edition | Champion | Champions League | Europa League | Conference League | Relegation play-off | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 89Bayern München | 62VfB Stuttgart | 61Hoffenheim | 59Bayer Leverkusen | 32Werder Bremen | 29VfL Wolfsburg |
Turnarounds
Outcomes the probabilities rated unlikely. A team that missed a zone only because it finished in a better one doesn't count, nor do changes from a pre-qualification activated after the last match (a domestic cup winner taking its continental berth and freeing its league spot, for instance).
Happened against the odds
St. Pauli 2025/26the risk of Relegation was down to 0.5% (September 14, 2025), and the team went down.
0.5%Relegation
VfL Wolfsburg 2025/26the risk of Relegation play-off was down to 1.7% (August 30, 2025), and the team went down.
1.7%Relegation play-off
Bayer Leverkusen 2025/26had just a 3.3% chance of Conference League (August 30, 2025) and finished there.
3.3%Conference League
Hoffenheim 2025/26had just a 3.3% chance of Europa League (October 3, 2025) and finished there.
3.3%Europa League
RB Leipzig 2025/26had just a 6.5% chance of Champions League (August 29, 2025) and finished there.
6.5%Champions League
VfB Stuttgart 2025/26had just a 7.0% chance of Champions League (August 29, 2025) and finished there.
7.0%Champions League
Looked certain, didn't happen
- Hoffenheim 2025/26
reached a 91.5% chance of Champions League (February 7, 2026) and missed out.
91.5%Champions League - VfL Wolfsburg 2025/26
the risk of Relegation reached 84.0% (April 10, 2026), and the team escaped.
84.0%Relegation 
Mainz 05 2025/26the risk of Relegation reached 76.9% (December 13, 2025), and the team escaped.
76.9%Relegation