Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 7 home wins, no draws and 3 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: ABC beat Criciúma with a 16.6% chance, Náutico beat Boa Esporte with a 24.3% chance, and Vitória beat Oeste with a 23.4% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on May 10 (before the first match) against those on May 17 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Criciúma | Promotion | 34.8% | 17.7% | −17.1 |
| Santa Cruz | Relegation | 29.9% | 13.5% | −16.4 |
| Mogi Mirim | Relegation | 38.5% | 54.7% | +16.2 |
| Botafogo | Promotion | 36.6% | 51.5% | +14.9 |
| ABC | Relegation | 31.4% | 16.7% | −14.6 |
| Atlético-GO | Promotion | 30.2% | 16.0% | −14.2 |
| Red Bull Bragantino | Relegation | 42.3% | 29.5% | −12.8 |
| Sampaio Corrêa | Promotion | 34.8% | 47.6% | +12.8 |
| Bahia | Promotion | 27.2% | 39.8% | +12.6 |
| Paraná | Promotion | 25.0% | 13.3% | −11.7 |
