Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 3 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Santa Cruz beat Red Bull Bragantino with a 22.4% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on June 28 (before the first match) against those on July 5 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia | Promotion | 53.9% | 39.7% | −14.2 |
| Luverdense | Relegation | 32.2% | 19.6% | −12.6 |
| Sampaio Corrêa | Promotion | 34.0% | 21.6% | −12.3 |
| Vitória | Promotion | 33.7% | 43.9% | +10.3 |
| Paysandu | Promotion | 42.5% | 52.3% | +9.8 |
| Santa Cruz | Relegation | 25.8% | 16.5% | −9.3 |
| Ceará | Relegation | 57.9% | 67.1% | +9.2 |
| Bahia | Champion | 16.7% | 8.2% | −8.5 |
| Botafogo | Promotion | 68.0% | 76.2% | +8.3 |
| Atlético-GO | Relegation | 35.5% | 43.7% | +8.3 |
