Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 2 draws and 3 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Duque de Caxias beat Campinense with a 22.0% chance, Guarani beat Fortaleza with a 21.5% chance, and Atlético-GO beat América-RN with a 21.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on May 7 (before the first match) against those on May 9 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guarani | Relegation | 33.6% | 14.6% | −19.0 |
| Duque de Caxias | Relegation | 38.9% | 22.6% | −16.2 |
| Fortaleza | Relegation | 28.6% | 43.7% | +15.1 |
| Atlético-GO | Relegation | 31.4% | 17.7% | −13.7 |
| Ipatinga | Promotion | 27.9% | 14.7% | −13.2 |
| ABC | Relegation | 22.0% | 35.0% | +13.0 |
| Figueirense | Promotion | 33.8% | 46.5% | +12.7 |
| Guarani | Promotion | 10.5% | 22.9% | +12.5 |
| Paraná | Relegation | 19.8% | 31.4% | +11.6 |
| Red Bull Bragantino | Promotion | 23.9% | 34.6% | +10.7 |
