Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 5 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Ceará beat Palmeiras with a 23.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on July 15 (before the first match) against those on July 22 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santos | Champion | 27.3% | 47.0% | +19.7 |
| Palmeiras | Champion | 42.6% | 23.6% | −19.1 |
| Ceará | Relegation | 27.0% | 9.3% | −17.7 |
| Vasco | Relegation | 27.1% | 11.4% | −15.6 |
| Palmeiras | Libertadores | 86.6% | 71.7% | −15.0 |
| Fluminense | Relegation | 36.1% | 50.6% | +14.4 |
| Chapecoense | Relegation | 53.4% | 67.7% | +14.4 |
| São Paulo | Libertadores | 8.9% | 22.0% | +13.1 |
| Ceará | Sudamericana | 30.5% | 43.3% | +12.9 |
| Athletico-PR | Libertadores | 9.0% | 20.7% | +11.7 |
