Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 2 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Botafogo beat Palmeiras with a 21.8% chance and Vitória beat Vasco with a 24.3% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on November 30 (before the first match) against those on December 7 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport | Sudamericana | 57.9% | 0% | −57.9 |
| Vitória | Sudamericana | 43.9% | 100% | +56.1 |
| Athletico-PR | Relegation | 40.3% | 0% | −40.3 |
| Figueirense | Relegation | 62.4% | 100% | +37.6 |
| Vasco | Relegation | 72.6% | 100% | +27.4 |
| Grêmio | Champion | 25.6% | 0% | −25.6 |
| São Paulo | Champion | 74.4% | 100% | +25.6 |
| Náutico | Relegation | 24.7% | 0% | −24.7 |
| Flamengo | Libertadores | 24.0% | 0% | −24.0 |
| Flamengo | Sudamericana | 76.0% | 100% | +24.0 |
