Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 4 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Náutico beat Fluminense with a 17.3% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on May 11 (before the first match) against those on May 18 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense | Libertadores | 31.2% | 16.9% | −14.3 |
| Náutico | Libertadores | 14.2% | 27.2% | +13.0 |
| Portuguesa | Relegation | 48.0% | 60.4% | +12.4 |
| Santos | Libertadores | 24.8% | 37.0% | +12.2 |
| Ipatinga | Relegation | 54.3% | 66.3% | +12.1 |
| Náutico | Relegation | 19.0% | 7.9% | −11.1 |
| Vasco | Relegation | 18.0% | 9.3% | −8.7 |
| Vitória | Relegation | 73.3% | 64.6% | −8.6 |
| Vasco | Libertadores | 13.1% | 21.0% | +7.9 |
| Botafogo | Libertadores | 31.7% | 23.9% | −7.8 |
