Prob11

Brazilian Série A 2025

Finished
Updated through 12/21/2025
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Title race
Flamengo
100%
chance to win the title
100 pp ahead of Palmeiras
Flamengo 100%Palmeiras 0%Others <0.1%
Favorites for Libertadores
FlamengoFlamengo100%PalmeirasPalmeiras100%CruzeiroCruzeiro100%MirassolMirassol100%FluminenseFluminense100%

Highlights

round 38 complete
São PauloSão Paulo

São Paulo's relegation risk peaked at 53.6% in round 13, and they survived.

38ª
CearáCeará

Ceará had a relegation risk of only 0.3% in round 33, and still went down.

38ª
FlamengoFlamengo

Flamengo finished on 79 points, 3 clear of Palmeiras.

38ª

The table's percentages are recalculated after every result and may differ from this analysis, which reflects the moment stated above.

Standings

probability by zone
Statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
#TeamPtsPWDLGFGAGDChampionLibertadoresLibertadores Second RoundSudamericanaRelegation
1FlamengoFlamengo7938231057827+51100%100%0%0%0%
2PalmeirasPalmeiras763823786633+330%100%0%0%0%
3CruzeiroCruzeiro7038191365531+240%100%0%0%0%
4MirassolMirassol6738181376339+240%100%0%0%0%
5FluminenseFluminense6438197125039+110%100%0%0%0%
6BotafogoBotafogo6338171295838+200%0%100%0%0%
7BahiaBahia6038179125046+40%0%100%0%0%
8São PauloSão Paulo5138149154347-40%0%0%100%0%
9GrêmioGrêmio49381310154750-30%0%0%100%0%
10Red Bull BragantinoRed Bull Bragantino4838146184557-120%0%0%100%0%
11Atletico-MGAtletico-MG48381212144344-10%0%0%100%0%
12SantosSantos47381211154550-50%0%0%100%0%
13CorinthiansCorinthians47381211154247-50%100%0%0%0%
14VascoVasco4538136195560-50%0%0%100%0%
15VitóriaVitória45381112153552-170%0%0%0%0%
16InternacionalInternacional44381111164457-130%0%0%0%0%
17CearáCeará43381110173440-60%0%0%0%100%
18FortalezaFortaleza43381110174358-150%0%0%0%100%
19JuventudeJuventude353898213569-340%0%0%0%100%
20SportSport1738211252875-470%0%0%0%100%
ChampionLibertadoresLibertadores Second RoundSudamericanaRelegation