Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 1 draw and 6 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Fulham beat Manchester City with a 20.1% chance, Everton beat Middlesbrough with a 23.9% chance, and Portsmouth beat Wigan Athletic with a 19.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on April 26 (before the first match) against those on May 1 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn Rovers | Europa League | 41.6% | 87.5% | +45.9 |
| Portsmouth | Relegation | 30.5% | 0% | −30.5 |
| Birmingham City | Relegation | 70.5% | 100% | +29.5 |
| Bolton Wanderers | Europa League | 38.6% | 10.1% | −28.5 |
| Newcastle | Europa League | 19.3% | 2.4% | −17.0 |
| Arsenal | Europa League | 64.4% | 76.6% | +12.1 |
| Tottenham | Champions League | 64.6% | 76.6% | +12.0 |
| Tottenham | Europa League | 35.4% | 23.4% | −12.0 |
| Arsenal | Champions League | 35.3% | 23.4% | −11.9 |
