Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 1 draw and 6 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Tottenham beat Derby County with a 14.9% chance, Leicester City beat Leeds United with a 17.5% chance, and Everton beat Wimbledon with a 20.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 28 (before the first match) against those on October 4 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | Champions League | 34.1% | 46.1% | +12.0 |
| Nottingham | Relegation | 42.3% | 53.8% | +11.5 |
| Southampton | Relegation | 61.8% | 73.2% | +11.4 |
| Manchester United | Champions League | 48.5% | 59.5% | +11.0 |
| Middlesbrough | Relegation | 24.3% | 14.1% | −10.2 |
| Tottenham | Relegation | 29.2% | 20.0% | −9.2 |
| Everton | Relegation | 28.1% | 19.1% | −9.0 |
| Charlton Athletic | Relegation | 34.7% | 25.7% | −9.0 |
| Leeds United | Champions League | 26.0% | 17.5% | −8.5 |
| Aston Villa | Champions League | 54.6% | 62.4% | +7.8 |
