Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 3 draws and 4 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Real Valladolid beat Getafe with a 19.9% chance and Celta Vigo beat Real Betis with a 24.1% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 18 (before the first match) against those on October 3 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 48.2% | 34.8% | −13.4 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 34.7% | 46.8% | +12.1 |
| Real Betis | Champions League | 56.7% | 44.9% | −11.8 |
| Almería | Relegation | 36.0% | 45.2% | +9.2 |
| Athletic Club | Champions League | 28.3% | 36.6% | +8.3 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 32.2% | 40.4% | +8.2 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 45.9% | 38.2% | −7.6 |
| Villarreal | Champions League | 46.4% | 39.2% | −7.1 |
| Girona | Relegation | 20.0% | 26.1% | +6.1 |
| Real Sociedad | Champions League | 13.8% | 19.7% | +5.9 |
