Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 4 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Elche beat Mallorca with a 13.9% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on February 27 (before the first match) against those on March 6 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 45.2% | 32.6% | −12.6 |
| Getafe | Relegation | 41.9% | 30.7% | −11.2 |
| Almería | Relegation | 29.0% | 39.1% | +10.1 |
| Real Sociedad | Champions League | 64.4% | 54.7% | −9.7 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 78.7% | 86.0% | +7.3 |
| Espanyol | Relegation | 14.8% | 21.2% | +6.4 |
| Villarreal | Conference League | 19.2% | 25.1% | +5.9 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 83.6% | 89.1% | +5.5 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 16.2% | 10.8% | −5.4 |
| Real Sociedad | Europa League | 20.4% | 25.6% | +5.3 |
