Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 1 draw and 4 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Rayo Vallecano beat Villarreal with a 15.9% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on January 23 (before the first match) against those on January 30 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | Champions League | 41.6% | 27.0% | −14.6 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 42.9% | 55.9% | +13.0 |
| Getafe | Relegation | 29.5% | 40.9% | +11.4 |
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 47.9% | 38.7% | −9.2 |
| Cádiz | Relegation | 44.6% | 35.4% | −9.2 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 61.8% | 70.7% | +8.9 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 35.9% | 27.4% | −8.6 |
| Espanyol | Relegation | 11.6% | 19.8% | +8.3 |
| Almería | Relegation | 23.6% | 16.0% | −7.6 |
| Real Betis | Champions League | 25.4% | 32.4% | +7.0 |
