Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 3 draws and 4 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Real Sociedad beat Atlético Madrid with a 21.6% chance and Granada beat Celta Vigo with a 24.1% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 1 (before the first match) against those on September 15 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 76.7% | 62.7% | −14.0 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champion | 34.8% | 20.8% | −14.0 |
| Granada | Relegation | 29.4% | 18.1% | −11.3 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 56.6% | 67.2% | +10.6 |
| Leganés | Relegation | 23.5% | 33.9% | +10.4 |
| Celta Vigo | Relegation | 23.5% | 33.2% | +9.7 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 14.4% | 22.6% | +8.1 |
| Sevilla | Champions League | 53.7% | 61.6% | +7.9 |
| Real Sociedad | Relegation | 15.5% | 8.3% | −7.1 |
| Eibar | Relegation | 25.4% | 31.8% | +6.5 |
