Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 3 draws and 4 away wins. 4 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Rayo Vallecano beat Real Valladolid with a 18.4% chance, Huesca beat Real Betis with a 23.1% chance, Real Sociedad beat Real Madrid with a 14.8% chance, and Athletic Club beat Celta Vigo with a 20.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on January 3 (before the first match) against those on January 7 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | Champion | 61.5% | 73.0% | +11.5 |
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 16.4% | 26.5% | +10.1 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 68.3% | 58.2% | −10.1 |
| Deportivo Alavés | Champions League | 16.8% | 26.7% | +9.9 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 75.8% | 66.9% | −8.9 |
| Athletic Club | Relegation | 29.8% | 21.8% | −8.0 |
| Leganés | Relegation | 19.6% | 26.8% | +7.2 |
| Real Sociedad | Europa League | 6.4% | 12.2% | +5.8 |
| Real Sociedad | Relegation | 9.8% | 4.9% | −4.9 |
| Real Betis | Champions League | 15.8% | 11.5% | −4.3 |
