Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 5 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Deportivo Alavés beat Real Sociedad with a 24.9% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on December 17 (before the first match) against those on January 3 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | Champion | 54.9% | 61.5% | +6.6 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 82.4% | 75.8% | −6.6 |
| Deportivo Alavés | Europa League | 18.3% | 24.7% | +6.4 |
| Deportivo Alavés | Champions League | 10.6% | 16.8% | +6.2 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 82.7% | 88.1% | +5.4 |
| Sevilla | Champion | 13.8% | 8.9% | −5.0 |
| Valencia | Europa League | 14.7% | 18.1% | +3.4 |
| Real Sociedad | Relegation | 6.6% | 9.8% | +3.2 |
