Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 3 draws and 4 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Real Valladolid beat Real Sociedad with a 16.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on December 3 (before the first match) against those on December 10 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 25.3% | 16.0% | −9.3 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 69.0% | 77.9% | +8.9 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 43.2% | 51.4% | +8.2 |
| Athletic Club | Relegation | 37.6% | 30.3% | −7.3 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 74.6% | 81.4% | +6.8 |
| Deportivo Alavés | Champions League | 20.6% | 14.2% | −6.4 |
| Sevilla | Champion | 19.4% | 13.4% | −6.0 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 60.7% | 66.6% | +6.0 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 87.5% | 93.1% | +5.6 |
| Espanyol | Champions League | 12.2% | 7.0% | −5.1 |
