Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 2 draws and 4 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Villarreal beat Atlético Madrid with a 21.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on April 24 (before the first match) against those on April 27 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganés | Relegation | 18.8% | 4.6% | −14.2 |
| Sporting Gijón | Relegation | 82.1% | 94.8% | +12.7 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 62.0% | 69.1% | +7.2 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 38.0% | 30.9% | −7.1 |
| Athletic Club | Europa League | 69.0% | 62.2% | −6.8 |
| Villarreal | Europa League | 82.8% | 89.1% | +6.3 |
| Real Sociedad | Europa League | 42.3% | 45.3% | +3.0 |
