Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Osasuna beat Atlético Madrid with a 19.6% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on February 17 (before the first match) against those on February 24 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | Champion | 34.1% | 51.9% | +17.7 |
| Osasuna | Relegation | 16.2% | 5.8% | −10.4 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 41.0% | 31.7% | −9.4 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 49.1% | 58.0% | +8.8 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champion | 24.8% | 16.5% | −8.3 |
| Villarreal | Europa League | 49.1% | 56.4% | +7.3 |
| Espanyol | Europa League | 7.6% | 2.1% | −5.5 |
| Levante | Europa League | 10.7% | 6.1% | −4.6 |
| Real Betis | Relegation | 88.6% | 92.9% | +4.4 |
| Athletic Club | Europa League | 44.1% | 47.7% | +3.6 |
