Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, no draws and 7 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Sporting Gijón beat Real Madrid with a 9.3% chance, Racing Santander beat Espanyol with a 19.2% chance, and Hércules beat Real Sociedad with a 20.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on March 20 (before the first match) against those on April 4 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | Europa League | 49.3% | 27.8% | −21.5 |
| Hércules | Relegation | 71.5% | 52.4% | −19.1 |
| Málaga | Relegation | 42.6% | 57.2% | +14.6 |
| Athletic Club | Europa League | 52.1% | 64.7% | +12.5 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Relegation | 22.5% | 12.0% | −10.5 |
| Atlético Madrid | Europa League | 26.2% | 36.5% | +10.3 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 88.7% | 97.9% | +9.3 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 11.4% | 2.1% | −9.3 |
| Almería | Relegation | 81.9% | 91.1% | +9.2 |
| Real Zaragoza | Relegation | 39.9% | 48.5% | +8.6 |
