Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 5 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Málaga beat Real Sociedad with a 19.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on March 7 (before the first match) against those on March 14 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Zaragoza | Relegation | 46.5% | 31.0% | −15.5 |
| Málaga | Relegation | 73.8% | 58.8% | −15.1 |
| Hércules | Relegation | 43.7% | 54.3% | +10.5 |
| Espanyol | Europa League | 45.5% | 55.4% | +9.9 |
| Almería | Relegation | 61.9% | 70.3% | +8.5 |
| Racing Santander | Relegation | 12.1% | 19.0% | +6.9 |
| Osasuna | Relegation | 16.2% | 10.0% | −6.2 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Relegation | 7.4% | 12.2% | +4.8 |
| Espanyol | Champions League | 4.0% | 8.4% | +4.4 |
| Real Sociedad | Europa League | 6.7% | 2.7% | −4.0 |
