Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 7 home wins, 1 draw and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Villarreal beat Barcelona with a 20.6% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on March 2 (before the first match) against those on March 9 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | Champions League | 74.0% | 87.6% | +13.5 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 51.5% | 38.5% | −13.0 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 18.4% | 8.2% | −10.1 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 81.2% | 91.2% | +10.0 |
| Villarreal | Europa League | 20.5% | 10.7% | −9.8 |
| Espanyol | Champions League | 26.8% | 17.7% | −9.0 |
| Recreativo Huelva | Relegation | 18.3% | 26.3% | +8.0 |
| Athletic Club | Relegation | 15.9% | 8.2% | −7.7 |
| Real Murcia | Relegation | 84.7% | 92.3% | +7.6 |
| Racing Santander | Champions League | 20.2% | 27.6% | +7.4 |
