Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 4 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Osasuna beat Real Zaragoza with a 21.6% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on November 26 (before the first match) against those on December 3 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 27.2% | 38.2% | +11.0 |
| Real Zaragoza | Champions League | 38.1% | 28.4% | −9.7 |
| Real Betis | Relegation | 26.3% | 33.3% | +7.0 |
| Valencia | Champions League | 22.1% | 15.2% | −6.9 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 19.6% | 26.5% | +6.9 |
| Sevilla | Champions League | 81.0% | 74.5% | −6.5 |
| Espanyol | Relegation | 15.1% | 9.4% | −5.8 |
| Valencia | Europa League | 26.1% | 20.8% | −5.4 |
| Gimnàstic de Tarragona | Relegation | 80.7% | 86.0% | +5.3 |
| Villarreal | Champions League | 9.6% | 14.2% | +4.6 |
