Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 3 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Albacete beat Real Sociedad with a 23.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on January 5 (before the first match) against those on January 9 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 64.7% | 77.6% | +12.9 |
| Albacete | Relegation | 27.5% | 17.0% | −10.6 |
| Racing Santander | Relegation | 41.6% | 31.3% | −10.4 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 82.3% | 72.7% | −9.5 |
| Espanyol | Champions League | 26.4% | 35.8% | +9.4 |
| Málaga | Relegation | 36.8% | 46.1% | +9.3 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 16.9% | 8.7% | −8.2 |
| Sevilla | Champions League | 53.2% | 45.2% | −8.0 |
| Villarreal | Europa League | 13.4% | 19.9% | +6.6 |
| Real Betis | Champions League | 17.6% | 12.1% | −5.4 |
