Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 4 draws and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Real Zaragoza beat Celta Vigo with a 20.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on March 21 (before the first match) against those on April 14 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | Champion | 41.7% | 71.9% | +30.1 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 53.5% | 27.1% | −26.4 |
| Celta Vigo | Relegation | 55.3% | 79.6% | +24.3 |
| Osasuna | Europa League | 41.4% | 62.3% | +20.9 |
| Real Zaragoza | Relegation | 16.0% | 3.9% | −12.1 |
| Mallorca | Relegation | 23.2% | 11.7% | −11.5 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Champions League | 93.5% | 99.7% | +6.2 |
| Villarreal | Europa League | 6.6% | 0.8% | −5.9 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Europa League | 6.2% | 0.3% | −5.9 |
| Real Betis | Europa League | 5.3% | 0.5% | −4.7 |
