Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 2 draws and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Osasuna beat Atlético Madrid with a 21.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on April 20 (before the first match) against those on April 27 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | Champion | 50.2% | 76.6% | +26.4 |
| Deportivo Alavés | Relegation | 43.5% | 62.5% | +19.0 |
| Osasuna | Relegation | 60.3% | 43.5% | −16.8 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Champion | 28.0% | 11.5% | −16.5 |
| Valencia | Champions League | 42.3% | 58.6% | +16.3 |
| Celta Vigo | Europa League | 41.5% | 55.9% | +14.4 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 79.9% | 94.1% | +14.2 |
| Celta Vigo | Champions League | 57.3% | 43.2% | −14.0 |
| Valencia | Europa League | 54.7% | 40.9% | −13.8 |
| Recreativo Huelva | Relegation | 74.4% | 62.4% | −12.0 |
