Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 2 draws and 4 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Sevilla beat Villarreal with a 22.0% chance, Tenerife beat Athletic Club with a 15.3% chance, and Osasuna beat Deportivo Alavés with a 17.4% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on December 23 (before the first match) against those on January 6 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | Champions League | 42.5% | 58.8% | +16.3 |
| Deportivo Alavés | Champions League | 48.9% | 35.8% | −13.1 |
| Osasuna | Relegation | 37.1% | 24.6% | −12.5 |
| Tenerife | Relegation | 61.1% | 48.9% | −12.1 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 68.0% | 79.0% | +11.1 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 31.8% | 42.3% | +10.5 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 22.9% | 33.2% | +10.4 |
| Athletic Club | Champions League | 34.5% | 24.5% | −10.0 |
| Real Zaragoza | Relegation | 22.2% | 32.1% | +10.0 |
| Villarreal | Relegation | 5.5% | 12.6% | +7.1 |
