Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 3 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Villarreal beat Las Palmas with a 24.2% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on December 3 (before the first match) against those on December 10 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | Relegation | 29.6% | 16.0% | −13.6 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 60.8% | 72.6% | +11.8 |
| Racing Santander | Relegation | 52.3% | 41.5% | −10.8 |
| Las Palmas | Relegation | 16.6% | 26.3% | +9.7 |
| Real Sociedad | Relegation | 34.8% | 44.0% | +9.3 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 31.3% | 40.4% | +9.1 |
| Deportivo Alavés | Champions League | 32.0% | 23.2% | −8.8 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Champion | 37.8% | 29.8% | −8.0 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 16.0% | 22.9% | +6.9 |
| Valencia | Champions League | 74.8% | 80.6% | +5.8 |
