Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 2 home wins, 3 draws and 5 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Rayo Vallecano beat Barcelona with a 15.7% chance, Deportivo Alavés beat Real Madrid with a 20.1% chance, and Real Betis beat Real Valladolid with a 21.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on April 30 (before the first match) against those on May 7 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | Europa League | 22.0% | 61.5% | +39.5 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 78.0% | 38.5% | −39.4 |
| Deportivo Alavés | Champions League | 19.9% | 53.8% | +33.9 |
| Deportivo Alavés | Europa League | 79.7% | 46.2% | −33.5 |
| Valencia | Champions League | 39.1% | 56.7% | +17.6 |
| Valencia | Europa League | 60.8% | 43.3% | −17.5 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 33.7% | 17.1% | −16.6 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Champion | 61.5% | 77.7% | +16.2 |
| Real Betis | Relegation | 92.5% | 81.7% | −10.8 |
| Real Oviedo | Relegation | 3.1% | 13.0% | +9.9 |
