Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Rayo Vallecano beat Athletic Club with a 21.6% chance and Mallorca beat Barcelona with a 19.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on April 2 (before the first match) against those on April 9 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo La Coruña | Champion | 51.0% | 73.7% | +22.7 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 40.1% | 17.8% | −22.3 |
| Real Sociedad | Relegation | 21.4% | 6.4% | −15.0 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 61.3% | 75.0% | +13.6 |
| Valencia | Europa League | 47.3% | 58.2% | +10.9 |
| Deportivo Alavés | Champions League | 33.8% | 23.1% | −10.7 |
| Deportivo Alavés | Europa League | 52.0% | 62.7% | +10.7 |
| Real Oviedo | Relegation | 41.4% | 50.9% | +9.5 |
| Celta Vigo | Europa League | 20.7% | 11.6% | −9.1 |
| Real Madrid | Europa League | 32.6% | 23.5% | −9.1 |
