Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Málaga beat Celta Vigo with a 16.5% chance and Real Valladolid beat Real Betis with a 23.3% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on December 19 (before the first match) against those on December 22 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Málaga | Relegation | 39.7% | 24.7% | −15.0 |
| Real Oviedo | Relegation | 31.8% | 44.3% | +12.5 |
| Celta Vigo | Champions League | 53.0% | 40.5% | −12.5 |
| Real Zaragoza | Champions League | 49.3% | 60.3% | +11.0 |
| Atlético Madrid | Relegation | 32.1% | 22.6% | −9.6 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 13.5% | 22.6% | +9.2 |
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 33.9% | 24.9% | −9.0 |
| Sevilla | Relegation | 74.0% | 81.8% | +7.8 |
| Mallorca | Champions League | 21.5% | 28.8% | +7.2 |
| Deportivo Alavés | Champions League | 17.5% | 10.3% | −7.1 |
