Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 4 draws and 2 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Atlético Madrid beat Real Madrid with a 15.6% chance and Rayo Vallecano beat Real Valladolid with a 23.2% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on October 24 (before the first match) against those on October 31 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Numancia | Relegation | 48.9% | 36.4% | −12.5 |
| Sevilla | Relegation | 45.4% | 57.5% | +12.1 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 35.2% | 23.2% | −11.9 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Champions League | 42.4% | 53.2% | +10.8 |
| Atlético Madrid | Relegation | 25.5% | 15.0% | −10.4 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Champions League | 18.8% | 28.8% | +10.0 |
| Celta Vigo | Champions League | 52.3% | 43.8% | −8.5 |
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 17.4% | 25.0% | +7.7 |
| Deportivo Alavés | Relegation | 24.6% | 17.5% | −7.2 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 49.2% | 42.1% | −7.1 |
