Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 2 home wins, 6 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Hércules beat Racing Santander with a 16.3% chance and Rayo Vallecano beat Real Oviedo with a 21.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on March 24 (before the first match) against those on March 31 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 38.4% | 18.1% | −20.3 |
| Logroñés | Relegation | 72.3% | 83.7% | +11.4 |
| Extremadura | Relegation | 41.1% | 51.1% | +10.0 |
| Compostela | Relegation | 11.0% | 4.9% | −6.2 |
| Hércules | Relegation | 97.2% | 92.4% | −4.8 |
| Atlético Madrid | Europa League | 20.0% | 24.3% | +4.4 |
| Logroñés | Relegation play-off | 10.8% | 7.1% | −3.7 |
| Real Oviedo | Relegation play-off | 3.5% | 6.8% | +3.3 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation play-off | 15.9% | 12.9% | −3.0 |
