Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 6 home wins, 3 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Valencia beat Real Sociedad with a 23.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on February 3 (before the first match) against those on February 9 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Zaragoza | Relegation | 51.8% | 40.4% | −11.4 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 67.5% | 77.6% | +10.1 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 57.6% | 47.7% | −9.8 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 19.3% | 10.2% | −9.1 |
| Real Sociedad | Europa League | 35.4% | 27.6% | −7.8 |
| Barcelona | Europa League | 33.4% | 40.4% | +7.0 |
| Real Betis | Champions League | 32.7% | 39.4% | +6.8 |
| Atlético Madrid | Europa League | 25.7% | 31.4% | +5.7 |
| Hércules | Relegation | 67.9% | 73.3% | +5.4 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 88.7% | 93.7% | +5.0 |
