Prob11

World Cup 2026

Ongoing
Updated through 06/25/2026
Road to the title
Argentina
5.7%
chance to be champion
0 pp ahead of France
Argentina 5.7%France 5.4%Mexico 4.8%Germany 4.8%Colombia 4.7%Others 74.7%
Title favourites
ArgentinaArgentina5.7%FranceFrance5.4%MexicoMexico4.8%GermanyGermany4.8%ColombiaColombia4.7%

Groups

Group A
TeamPPtsAdv.
1MexicoMexico39100%
2South AfricaSouth Africa34100%
3South KoreaSouth Korea3397.0%
4CzechiaCzechia310%
Group B
TeamPPtsAdv.
1SwitzerlandSwitzerland37100%
2CanadaCanada34>99.9%
3Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina34>99.9%
4QatarQatar310%
Group C
TeamPPtsAdv.
1BrazilBrazil37100%
2MoroccoMorocco37100%
3ScotlandScotland3356.2%
4HaitiHaiti300%
Group D
TeamPPtsAdv.
1United StatesUnited States26100%
2AustraliaAustralia2394.0%
3ParaguayParaguay2370.2%
4TürkiyeTürkiye200%
Group E
TeamPPtsAdv.
1GermanyGermany26100%
2Côte d’IvoireCôte d’Ivoire23100%
3EcuadorEcuador21<0.1%
4CuraçaoCuraçao21<0.1%
Group F
TeamPPtsAdv.
1NetherlandsNetherlands24100%
2JapanJapan24100%
3SwedenSweden23>99.9%
4TunisiaTunisia200%
Group G
TeamPPtsAdv.
1EgyptEgypt24>99.9%
2IranIran2259.3%
3BelgiumBelgium2275.7%
4New ZealandNew Zealand2124.3%
Group H
TeamPPtsAdv.
1SpainSpain24>99.9%
2UruguayUruguay2257.8%
3Cape VerdeCape Verde2263.9%
4Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia2136.1%
Group I
TeamPPtsAdv.
1FranceFrance26100%
2NorwayNorway26100%
3SenegalSenegal2044.8%
4IraqIraq2011.4%
Group J
TeamPPtsAdv.
1ArgentinaArgentina26100%
2AustriaAustria2396.2%
3AlgeriaAlgeria2375.1%
4JordanJordan200%
Group K
TeamPPtsAdv.
1ColombiaColombia26100%
2PortugalPortugal24>99.9%
3DR CongoDR Congo2141.4%
4UzbekistanUzbekistan201.4%
Group L
TeamPPtsAdv.
1EnglandEngland24>99.9%
2GhanaGhana24>99.9%
3CroatiaCroatia2395.2%
4PanamaPanama200%
View bracket

Objective probabilities

Each team's chance of reaching each stage, recomputed on every result.
Statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
#TeamAdvanceRound of 16QuarterfinalsSemifinalsFinalChampion
1MexicoMexico100%57.3%31.3%16.6%9.0%4.8%
2BrazilBrazil100%52.1%26.7%14.2%7.9%4.3%
3SwitzerlandSwitzerland100%56.0%29.8%15.9%8.1%4.2%
4MoroccoMorocco100%50.8%29.0%15.6%8.6%4.4%
5GermanyGermany100%59.5%32.0%17.1%9.0%4.8%
6United StatesUnited States100%57.1%32.2%17.6%9.2%4.6%
7FranceFrance100%58.9%32.0%17.7%9.7%5.4%
8ArgentinaArgentina100%60.3%34.3%18.4%10.0%5.7%
9NorwayNorway100%56.2%28.3%14.9%7.6%3.9%
10ColombiaColombia100%57.1%30.5%16.8%8.9%4.7%
11CanadaCanada>99.9%53.6%24.5%11.7%5.7%2.5%
12PortugalPortugal>99.9%53.4%26.9%13.5%6.7%3.5%
13NetherlandsNetherlands100%49.2%27.4%13.6%7.3%3.8%
14JapanJapan100%47.9%24.1%12.6%6.5%3.2%
15SpainSpain>99.9%52.3%28.0%14.8%7.4%3.8%
16EgyptEgypt>99.9%51.8%25.9%12.9%6.2%2.9%
17EnglandEngland>99.9%52.2%27.1%13.7%7.2%3.7%
18GhanaGhana>99.9%42.6%19.3%8.6%3.8%1.6%
19Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina>99.9%40.1%17.3%7.4%3.0%1.4%
20South AfricaSouth Africa100%46.5%19.2%8.1%3.6%1.4%
21SwedenSweden>99.9%45.4%21.8%9.8%4.2%1.9%
22AustriaAustria96.2%45.2%21.7%10.5%4.9%2.4%
23AustraliaAustralia94.0%47.1%22.2%10.7%5.0%2.4%
24Côte d’IvoireCôte d’Ivoire100%43.2%19.9%8.9%4.0%1.8%
25CroatiaCroatia95.2%47.0%23.9%11.6%5.8%2.8%
26South KoreaSouth Korea97.0%42.7%19.5%9.2%4.3%2.0%
27AlgeriaAlgeria75.1%34.8%16.9%8.3%4.1%2.0%
28ParaguayParaguay70.2%33.4%16.3%7.5%3.6%1.7%
29ScotlandScotland56.2%22.9%10.2%4.8%2.2%1.0%
30UruguayUruguay57.8%28.2%13.5%6.4%3.1%1.6%
31Cape VerdeCape Verde63.9%24.7%10.7%4.4%1.8%0.8%
32IranIran59.3%29.7%13.8%6.5%3.0%1.4%
33BelgiumBelgium75.7%38.4%18.2%8.8%4.2%2.0%
34DR CongoDR Congo41.4%16.0%6.6%2.8%1.2%0.6%
35EcuadorEcuador<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
36New ZealandNew Zealand24.3%8.6%2.8%1.1%0.4%0.1%
37CzechiaCzechia0%0%0%0%0%0%
38Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia36.1%13.3%5.8%2.2%0.8%0.3%
39CuraçaoCuraçao<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%
40QatarQatar0%0%0%0%0%0%
41PanamaPanama0%0%0%0%0%0%
42SenegalSenegal44.8%20.2%9.1%4.3%1.8%0.6%
43JordanJordan0%0%0%0%0%0%
44TürkiyeTürkiye0%0%0%0%0%0%
45HaitiHaiti0%0%0%0%0%0%
46IraqIraq11.4%3.9%1.5%0.7%0.2%0.1%
47UzbekistanUzbekistan1.4%0.5%0.2%0.1%0.1%<0.1%
48TunisiaTunisia0%0%0%0%0%0%