Prob11

World Cup 2026

Finished
Updated through 07/19/2026
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Road to the title
Spain
100%
chance to be champion
100 pp ahead of Argentina
Spain 100%Argentina 0%Others <0.1%
Title favourites
SpainSpain100%ArgentinaArgentina0%EnglandEngland0%FranceFrance0%MexicoMexico0%

Highlights

round 9 complete
SpainSpain

Spain won the tournament.

9ª

The table's percentages are recalculated after every result and may differ from this analysis, which reflects the moment stated above.

Groups

Group AGroup BGroup CGroup DGroup EGroup FGroup GGroup HGroup IGroup JGroup KGroup LView bracket
Group A
TeamPPtsAdv.
1MexicoMexico39100%
2South AfricaSouth Africa34100%
3South KoreaSouth Korea330%
4CzechiaCzechia310%
Group B
TeamPPtsAdv.
1SwitzerlandSwitzerland37100%
2CanadaCanada34100%
3Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina34100%
4QatarQatar310%
Group C
TeamPPtsAdv.
1BrazilBrazil37100%
2MoroccoMorocco37100%
3ScotlandScotland330%
4HaitiHaiti300%
Group D
TeamPPtsAdv.
1United StatesUnited States36100%
2AustraliaAustralia34100%
3ParaguayParaguay34100%
4TürkiyeTürkiye330%
Group E
TeamPPtsAdv.
1GermanyGermany36100%
2Côte d’IvoireCôte d’Ivoire36100%
3EcuadorEcuador34100%
4CuraçaoCuraçao310%
Group F
TeamPPtsAdv.
1NetherlandsNetherlands37100%
2JapanJapan35100%
3SwedenSweden34100%
4TunisiaTunisia300%
Group G
TeamPPtsAdv.
1BelgiumBelgium35100%
2EgyptEgypt35100%
3IranIran330%
4New ZealandNew Zealand310%
Group H
TeamPPtsAdv.
1SpainSpain37100%
2Cape VerdeCape Verde33100%
3UruguayUruguay320%
4Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia320%
Group I
TeamPPtsAdv.
1FranceFrance39100%
2NorwayNorway36100%
3SenegalSenegal33100%
4IraqIraq300%
Group J
TeamPPtsAdv.
1ArgentinaArgentina39100%
2AustriaAustria34100%
3AlgeriaAlgeria34100%
4JordanJordan300%
Group K
TeamPPtsAdv.
1ColombiaColombia37100%
2PortugalPortugal35100%
3DR CongoDR Congo34100%
4UzbekistanUzbekistan300%
Group L
TeamPPtsAdv.
1EnglandEngland37100%
2CroatiaCroatia36100%
3GhanaGhana34100%
4PanamaPanama300%

Objective probabilities

Each team's chance of reaching each stage, recomputed on every result.
Statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
#TeamAdvanceRound of 16QuarterfinalsSemifinalsFinalChampion
1SpainSpain100%100%100%100%100%100%
2ArgentinaArgentina100%100%100%100%100%0%
3EnglandEngland100%100%100%100%0%0%
4FranceFrance100%100%100%100%0%0%
5MexicoMexico100%100%0%0%0%0%
6NorwayNorway100%100%100%0%0%0%
7BelgiumBelgium100%100%100%0%0%0%
8MoroccoMorocco100%100%100%0%0%0%
9SwitzerlandSwitzerland100%100%100%0%0%0%
10ColombiaColombia100%100%0%0%0%0%
11BrazilBrazil100%100%0%0%0%0%
12United StatesUnited States100%100%0%0%0%0%
13NetherlandsNetherlands100%0%0%0%0%0%
14PortugalPortugal100%100%0%0%0%0%
15GermanyGermany100%0%0%0%0%0%
16CanadaCanada100%100%0%0%0%0%
17Côte d’IvoireCôte d’Ivoire100%0%0%0%0%0%
18CroatiaCroatia100%0%0%0%0%0%
19EgyptEgypt100%100%0%0%0%0%
20JapanJapan100%0%0%0%0%0%
21AustraliaAustralia100%0%0%0%0%0%
22ParaguayParaguay100%100%0%0%0%0%
23DR CongoDR Congo100%0%0%0%0%0%
24GhanaGhana100%0%0%0%0%0%
25EcuadorEcuador100%0%0%0%0%0%
26South AfricaSouth Africa100%0%0%0%0%0%
27SwedenSweden100%0%0%0%0%0%
28AustriaAustria100%0%0%0%0%0%
29Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina100%0%0%0%0%0%
30AlgeriaAlgeria100%0%0%0%0%0%
31SenegalSenegal100%0%0%0%0%0%
32South KoreaSouth Korea0%0%0%0%0%0%
33TürkiyeTürkiye0%0%0%0%0%0%
34ScotlandScotland0%0%0%0%0%0%
35IranIran0%0%0%0%0%0%
36Cape VerdeCape Verde100%0%0%0%0%0%
37UruguayUruguay0%0%0%0%0%0%
38Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia0%0%0%0%0%0%
39CzechiaCzechia0%0%0%0%0%0%
40New ZealandNew Zealand0%0%0%0%0%0%
41QatarQatar0%0%0%0%0%0%
42CuraçaoCuraçao0%0%0%0%0%0%
43PanamaPanama0%0%0%0%0%0%
44JordanJordan0%0%0%0%0%0%
45HaitiHaiti0%0%0%0%0%0%
46UzbekistanUzbekistan0%0%0%0%0%0%
47TunisiaTunisia0%0%0%0%0%0%
48IraqIraq0%0%0%0%0%0%