World Cup
Prob11 follows 1 edition of World Cup: 2026. Here are the champions, how far each team went and the turnarounds the probabilities did not see coming.
- Editions
- 1
- Different champions
- 1
Who finished where
Every zone of each edition, as the table finished — a pre-qualified team shows where it actually ended up.
- July 19, 2026The title is only secured in the last match.
Belgium
Morocco
Norway
Switzerland
Brazil
Canada
Colombia
Egypt
United States
Mexico
Portugal
Germany
Algeria
Australia
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Cape Verde
Côte d’Ivoire
Croatia
Ecuador
Ghana
Netherlands
Japan
DR Congo
Senegal
Sweden
South Africa
AustriaTurnarounds
Outcomes the probabilities rated unlikely. A team that missed a zone only because it finished in a better one doesn't count, nor do changes from a pre-qualification activated after the last match (a domestic cup winner taking its continental berth and freeing its league spot, for instance).
- Spain 2026
had just a 2.9% chance of Champion (June 16, 2026) and finished there.
2.9%Champion 
Argentina 2026had just a 7.1% chance of Final (June 14, 2026) and finished there.
7.1%Final
France 2026had just a 12.4% chance of Semifinals (June 15, 2026) and finished there.
12.4%Semifinals
England 2026had just a 12.7% chance of Semifinals (June 15, 2026) and finished there.
12.7%Semifinals
Paraguay 2026had just a 13.5% chance of Round of 16 (June 14, 2026) and finished there.
13.5%Round of 16
South Korea 2026reached a 92.3% chance of Advance (June 24, 2026) and missed out.
92.3%Advance
Scotland 2026reached a 88.8% chance of Advance (June 18, 2026) and missed out.
88.8%Advance
Iran 2026reached a 81.1% chance of Advance (June 10, 2026) and missed out.
81.1%Advance
Uruguay 2026reached a 80.1% chance of Advance (June 11, 2026) and missed out.
80.1%Advance
Türkiye 2026reached a 70.5% chance of Advance (June 13, 2026) and missed out.
70.5%Advance