Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, no draws and 5 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Deportivo Alavés beat Villarreal with a 24.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on February 25 (before the first match) against those on March 4 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe | Champions League | 34.3% | 51.6% | +17.4 |
| Sevilla | Champions League | 30.4% | 16.8% | −13.6 |
| Villarreal | Relegation | 32.0% | 43.1% | +11.1 |
| Huesca | Relegation | 88.6% | 77.9% | −10.7 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 65.8% | 75.2% | +9.4 |
| Girona | Relegation | 15.6% | 6.2% | −9.4 |
| Deportivo Alavés | Europa League | 26.6% | 35.2% | +8.7 |
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 41.5% | 48.4% | +6.9 |
| Real Sociedad | Europa League | 23.0% | 16.1% | −6.9 |
| Real Betis | Europa League | 23.2% | 16.5% | −6.6 |
