Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 3 draws and 4 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Deportivo La Coruña beat Barcelona with a 17.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on March 8 (before the first match) against those on March 13 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | Champions League | 26.8% | 11.5% | −15.3 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 53.6% | 68.8% | +15.2 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 41.7% | 27.8% | −13.9 |
| Athletic Club | Europa League | 21.0% | 32.1% | +11.1 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 56.8% | 66.2% | +9.5 |
| Atlético Madrid | Europa League | 38.5% | 29.9% | −8.6 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Relegation | 13.1% | 5.0% | −8.1 |
| Villarreal | Champions League | 17.8% | 25.1% | +7.3 |
| Granada | Relegation | 73.1% | 80.2% | +7.1 |
| Málaga | Relegation | 6.4% | 10.9% | +4.5 |
