Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 4 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Real Betis beat Málaga with a 24.9% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on February 26 (before the first match) against those on March 2 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | Champion | 60.3% | 48.2% | −12.1 |
| Granada | Relegation | 74.1% | 62.1% | −12.0 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 32.9% | 42.4% | +9.5 |
| Sporting Gijón | Relegation | 60.2% | 67.4% | +7.2 |
| Leganés | Relegation | 30.9% | 37.9% | +7.0 |
| Villarreal | Champions League | 11.4% | 17.5% | +6.1 |
| Villarreal | Europa League | 46.0% | 51.6% | +5.6 |
| Real Sociedad | Champions League | 27.3% | 22.8% | −4.5 |
| Real Betis | Relegation | 5.9% | 2.1% | −3.8 |
| Celta Vigo | Europa League | 14.7% | 11.3% | −3.4 |
