Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Sporting Gijón beat Athletic Club with a 18.7% chance, Leganés beat Celta Vigo with a 8.7% chance, and Las Palmas beat Valencia with a 22.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on August 18 (before the first match) against those on August 22 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 57.3% | 71.5% | +14.1 |
| Athletic Club | Champions League | 40.9% | 29.4% | −11.5 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 64.8% | 75.9% | +11.1 |
| Sporting Gijón | Relegation | 33.9% | 23.1% | −10.9 |
| Leganés | Relegation | 36.6% | 26.1% | −10.6 |
| Sevilla | Champions League | 36.8% | 46.9% | +10.1 |
| Celta Vigo | Champions League | 24.3% | 16.5% | −7.8 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 18.3% | 26.0% | +7.7 |
| Real Sociedad | Relegation | 9.8% | 17.3% | +7.5 |
| Real Betis | Relegation | 12.2% | 19.7% | +7.5 |
